Rob Wilson, Derek Bosworth, Luke Bosworth, Jeisson Cardenas-Rubio, Rosie Day, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick; Shyamoli Patel, Ha Bui, Xinru Lin, Daniel Seymour, Chris Thoung, Cambridge Econometrics; Jude Hillary, NFER
13 October 2022
This suite of reports is the second to be published by The Skills Imperative 2035: Essential skills for tomorrow’s workforce research programme, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. The aim of the overall research programme is to identify the essential employment skills that people will need for work by 2035. These reports provide detailed estimates of the shape and composition of the future labour market.
- Occupational Outlook – Long-run employment prospects for the UK Working Paper 2 – Headline report (PDF file)
- Occupational Outlook – Long-run employment prospects for the UK, Baseline Projections. Working Paper 2a (PDF file)
- Occupational Outlook – Long-run employment prospects for the UK, Alternative Scenarios. Working Paper 2b (PDF file)
- Occupational Outlook – Long-run employment prospects for the UK. Working Paper 2c: Technical report on sources and methods (PDF file)
The economy is changing slowly, but steadily and inexorably in favour of the service sector. By 2035, the structure of the labour market will have changed substantially. This is true across the range of possible future labour market projections we have considered. A combination of both relevant knowledge and skills will be required to tackle the future skills challenges. These projections imply significant changes in the skills required to succeed in the future labour market of 2035.
The key findings include:
- There are projected to be 2.6 million new jobs by 2035, the majority of which will be taken by women, reflecting the increasing participation of women in the labour market. The projections also show that jobs most vulnerable to automation are currently mainly held by men.
- The adoption of new technologies in the labour market are projected to lead to around two million jobs being displaced. However, there will be plenty of new opportunities too, which will offset these losses, in particular in higher skilled jobs and healthcare roles.
- Employment in the health sector is expected to increase the fastest, with around 369,000 new jobs by 2035.
- Most of the new jobs created by 2035 will be in professional and associate professional occupations.