Commenting on yesterday’s Budget, Jude Hillary, NFER’s Co-Head of Policy and Practice, said:
“Overall, this Budget does not bring substantive change to the core school funding settlement. This means schools will continue to operate in a highly challenging context, with rising SEND costs, falling pupil numbers in many areas, and the prospect of new delivery and resourcing demands arising from the government’s curriculum and assessment review. This includes expectations around an expanded enrichment offer and potential further expectations following the upcoming Schools White Paper.
“We welcome measures on education, family support, and youth opportunity – particularly the commitment to improving access to reading through school libraries, alongside new investment in playgrounds and school buildings.
“We also note the government’s decision to scrap the two-child benefit cap. This measure could ease financial pressure on larger low-income families and help to reduce child poverty, which is closely linked to educational disadvantage, lower attainment, and reduced access to learning opportunities.
“In addition, we strongly support free apprenticeships training for under-25s in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and the Youth Guarantee, which together provide important pathways into skills, work, and long-term economic participation for young people.
“However, while these investments are welcome, there remains a significant challenge around workforce sustainability. As the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has uprated its average earnings forecast for 2026/27, the government’s proposed 6.5 per cent teacher pay uplift over the next three years now sits around one percentage point below projected earnings growth over the same period. As a result, the teaching profession risks losing pay competitiveness with the wider workforce and provides a further challenge for the government to meet its 6,500 teacher target.”