The impact of early career retention payments on teacher retention
26 June 2025
This evaluation, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, explores the impact of early career retention payments on teacher retention in England. Our analysis covers the impact so far of five schemes that have been piloted since 2018: maths and physics retention payment (MPRP), teacher student loan reimbursement (TSLR), maths phased bursary (MPB), early career payment (ECP) and levelling up premium (LUP). These schemes all targeted additional payments to in-service early career teachers teaching shortage secondary subjects, with some payments linked to certain local areas and schools.
We use a combination of difference-in-differences and triple-differences methodologies to estimate the impact of the retention payments on teacher leaving rates, isolating the impacts from other influences such as changing leaving rates over time (including dramatically during the Covid-19 pandemic) and underlying differences in leaving rates by teacher experience, subject, area and school type. The study expands the evidence base on how effective and cost-effective retention payments are and draws out the implications for future policy design.
Key Findings
- Retention payments are probably an effective tool, but our new evidence is less conclusive than previous studies. Overall, eligibility for the five ECRPs that have been piloted in England since 2018 is associated with teacher leaving rates that are 5.1 per cent per year lower than they otherwise might have been. However, the impact estimate is not statistically significant. Eligibility for the maths phased bursary (MPB) is associated with a 10.9 per cent per year reduction in leaving rate, which is statistically significant. While our findings are partially supportive of the conclusions from previous research that retention payments seem effective at improving retention, they are far from conclusive.
- Retention payments add most value once the bursary policy are at a maximum. Simulation analysis finds that bursaries are considerably more cost effective than retention payments. However, as some subjects already have very high bursaries, the findings imply that retention payments can provide additional scope for improving retention and teacher supply as part of a wider strategy and where they are focussed on subjects that already have maximum bursaries.
- There is no compelling evidence of groups for whom retention payments are more effective that should guide future policy design. There is an indication that career changers, early career teachers that trained through School Direct and teachers in Outer London may be more responsive to payments than other teachers. However, these are not strong enough findings to confidently inform future policy design, nor are they factors that clearly link to wider policy goals that might also be emphasised in future policy design.
Related Titles
Blog post - Do retention payments for early career teachers work?