High-SEND schools and a system under strain: what leaders need to know

This article was first published in Sec-Ed and Headteacher Update on Monday 24^th November 2025. 

The headline is familiar: England’s SEND system is under unprecedented pressure. But behind the national figures lies a pattern that gets far less attention and has major implications for schools.

New NFER analysis, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, shows pupils with SEND are not evenly spread across the system. Instead, a growing number of mainstream schools are educating far more pupils with SEND than would be expected given their local intake. For leaders, this unevenness shapes budgets, staffing, parental expectations, and the day-to-day reality of inclusion.

These findings arrive just ahead of the government’s long-delayed schools white paper on SEND, expected in early 2026. As leaders wait for clarity on reform, this early evidence helps explain why the system feels stretched – and where pressure points may be most acute.

The scale of need is rising – and shifting into mainstream

More than 1.7 million pupils are now identified with SEND, up from 1.2 million in 2015. The sharpest rise has been among pupils with education, health and care plans (EHCPs) - legally binding plans for pupils with the most significant and complex special educational needs. Notably, most pupils with EHCPs are now in mainstream settings (56 per cent, up from 49 per cent in 2015). The fastest growth is in primary schools.

The unevenness is stark – and growing

The data makes this strikingly clear:

• Primary schools in the top quartile for EHCP rates have six times as many EHCP pupils as those in the lowest quartile ^[i]. This equates to an average of 17 pupils per school in the highest quartile compared to three pupils per school in the lowest quartile. Secondary schools in the top quartile have five times as many, equating to an average of 54 pupils compared to 14 pupils per school in the lowest quartile.
• Primary and secondary schools with the highest rate of pupils with any form of SEND (including both pupils with EHCPs and SEN Support) have, on average, more than twice the proportion of pupils with SEND as those with the fewest. For an average high-SEND primary school, this equates to around 65 pupils with SEND, compared to around 30 in other schools.

These are not marginal differences. While having a high rate of pupils with SEND may provide opportunities for schools to develop and consolidate expertise, the uneven spread of pupils with SEND across mainstream schools also risks creating significant pressures on those with the highest intakes.

Why does this clustering happen?

This is something we’re hoping to explore as part of ongoing research. However, local authority interviews surfaced several potential drivers:

1. Parental choice and school reputation
    Parents of children with SEND talk, compare notes and gravitate towards schools known for strong SEND practice. 

2. Variation in identification and thresholds
   SEN Support and EHCP rates vary: one LA reported primaries ranging from five to over 50 per cent of pupils on SEN Support. A high SEN Support rate could reflect high levels of underlying SEND or could be the result of over-identification of SEND. Some LAs reported offering training and support on SEN identification, while a few mandated standardised identification practices; others left it entirely to schools. Similarly, a range of factors can influence who receives an EHCP, including local differences in support, assessment and decision-making.

3. Accountability pressures
   Some schools are perceived as reluctant to admit or retain pupils with SEND due to concerns about performance measures and inspection outcomes. This reinforces patterns of uneven intake.

4. Structural and financial pressures
   Falling rolls, stretched budgets and long waits for EHCP assessments increase pressure. Some LAs perceived that in some schools, EHCPs were pursued partly as a way to secure additional funding. 
   

What this means as we await the SEND white paper

As the government prepares to publish its long-delayed SEND white paper, this analysis points to an important challenge: the uneven spread of pupils with SEND across mainstream schools risks creating significant pressures on those with the highest intakes of SEND students. This unevenness is more than a statistical pattern – it may be influencing workloads, budgets and, ultimately, pupils’ experiences. Understanding and addressing these imbalances should be a key consideration in whatever reforms follow.

Footnote

[i] Rates reflect comparisons between schools in the top 25% and bottom 25% for the proportion of pupils with an EHCP.