Disadvantaged apprentices are significantly more likely to withdraw from their apprenticeship programmes – with new research showing how the consequences can be long-lasting.
Securing success from start to finish: Investigating factors associated with apprenticeship withdrawal is an NFER report, funded by the Gatsby Charitable Foundation. It finds learners from poorer backgrounds, those with lower prior attainment and those facing additional barriers are disproportionately more likely to withdraw - highlighting the urgent need to improve support for apprentices most at risk of leaving early.
According to the study, withdrawal from apprenticeships is linked to background and circumstances, with some groups facing consistently higher risks:
- Apprentices employed by smaller organisations or employers new to apprenticeships are more likely to withdraw than those working for larger, more experienced employers.
- Learners without higher-level qualifications, and those with weaker attainment in GCSE English and maths, are significantly more likely to withdraw.
- Apprentices aged 16-17 and over the age of 25 are more likely to leave early than those aged 18-20.
- Learners from black and mixed ethnic backgrounds, and learners with English as a second language face higher withdrawal rates.
- Training with a more experienced provider is associated with lower withdrawal rates.
Jude Hillary, NFER’s Co-Head of Policy and Practice said:
“Young people who already face the greatest barriers in education and employment – such as those from disadvantaged backgrounds are most likely to struggle to complete their apprenticeships.
“We need to ensure disadvantaged apprentices receive earlier, more targeted support - not just during training, but right from the point they start considering an apprenticeship pathway.”
According to the report, despite recent improvements, apprenticeship achievement rates remain well below their level a decade ago. Achievement rates fell from 69 per cent in 2013/14 to around 53 per cent in 2021/22, before recovering to 61 per cent in 2023/24.
The research shows this long-term decline is closely linked to changes in how apprenticeships are designed and delivered, rather than simply to changes in who takes part.
Over the past decade, apprenticeships have shifted from shorter qualification-led training programmes (apprenticeship frameworks) to longer occupation-focused programmes with an independent end point assessment (apprenticeship standards).
While these newer programmes were introduced to improve the quality of training, the research finds a larger proportion of learners fail to complete their programmes - particularly among younger learners and those from disadvantaged backgrounds.
The research also finds that the level of apprenticeship wages also plays a limited role. A 10 per cent increase in first year apprentice pay is associated with only a small reduction in withdrawal risk, suggesting pay rises alone are unlikely to solve the completion challenge.
The study finds learners who withdraw from their apprenticeships appear to face lasting economic consequences. According to the research, three years after leaving their apprenticeship programmes, learners who did not complete their apprenticeships appear to experience significantly lower wages and are more likely to be unemployed compared with their peers who finished.
Commenting on the findings, Daniel Sandford Smith, Director of Programmes, Gatsby Foundation, said:
“Completion matters because it signals real occupational competence and delivers lasting benefits for learners. What this research tells us is that improving completion cannot be reduced to increasing numbers alone. Recent reforms have succeeded in strengthening the quality and credibility of apprenticeships – those gains must not be lost in the pursuit of higher achievement rates.
“As government works with employers to increase opportunities for young people, it will also need to ensure that employers and providers are supported to help apprentices – particularly those facing disadvantage – to complete high-quality programmes. Better use of data here, to understand where and why apprentices leave early, will help target support accordingly.
“Any future reforms to assessment or programme design should be led by the evidence and tested carefully. A more evidence-led approach will be essential if we are to avoid unintended consequence for those at risk of withdrawal and improve completion while maintaining the standards that give apprenticeships their value.”
The research makes the following policy recommendations:
- The Government should consider building on existing initiatives by targeting additional support towards apprentices, employers and providers that are associated with a higher probability of withdrawal.
- The Government should ensure there are adequate pre-apprenticeship programmes which prepare young people to start and complete a full apprenticeship, particularly young people with low prior attainment.