A new NFER blog, the first in a two-part blog series considering the challenges impacting schools as they start the new term, explores how funding pressures and demographic change are affecting school leaders.
The blog, authored by NFER Research Director, Jenna Julius, and Researcher, Gustavo Henndel Lopes, draws on responses from the June 2025 NFER Teacher Voice Omnibus Survey of over 350 senior leaders.
Key findings show:
- School finances remained largely stable in 2024/25: A substantial minority of primary school senior leaders (at 21 per cent) continue to say they had or were on track to have an in-year budget deficit that they expect to fund by a negative revenue balance in 2024/25 (as they have no reserves to cover it). This compares to nine per cent among secondary schools. This suggests that a sizeable minority of schools are likely to be returning in September 2025 in precarious financial circumstances.
- School budgets and provision set to worsen in 2025/26: Seventy-one per cent of primary and 65 per cent of secondary leaders are anticipating an in-year budget deficit in 2025/26. This represents a marked deterioration in secondary schools’ budget outlooks compared to 2023/24. Among schools anticipating an in-year budget deficit for 2025/26, nearly three in four say they are likely to cut provision, such as reducing the curriculum offer.
- Both primary and secondary school leaders are concerned about the pupil demographic decline: Three in five primary school leaders in 2024/25 reported being somewhat or very concerned about the impact of declining pupil numbers on their settings. More strikingly, around two in five secondary senior leaders said they were somewhat or very concerned about the looming impact on their schools. This is despite secondary pupil numbers not being forecast to dip for a couple more years.
- Schools are making staff cuts and adjustments in response to concerns about pupil demographic change: Sixty-nine per cent of primary and 65 per cent of secondary leaders who said they were at least slightly concerned about demographic change reported cutting support staff in response. Forty-one per cent of primary and 58 per cent of secondary leaders with similar levels of concern reported cutting teaching staff. Leaders also reported reducing extracurricular activities, narrowing the curriculum, and in some primary schools, increasing the use of mixed-age classes.
- A sizeable minority of senior leaders are planning to merge or close their schools: Twenty per cent of primary and 10 per cent of secondary leaders who said they were at least slightly concerned about demographic change, reported they had explored, or were considering exploring, merging with another school. Seven per cent of primary and six per cent of secondary leaders who said they were at least slightly concerned about demographic change, said they had discussed, or were considering discussing, closing their schools.
Commenting on the findings, Jenna Julius, Researcher Director at NFER, said:
“The financial landscape remains challenging, especially for primary schools, and many leaders expect things to worsen in the year ahead. Falling pupil numbers are already driving difficult choices and adjustments - from cutting staff to narrowing the curriculum, to considering mergers or even closure.
“Without more proactive system-level planning and support at both local and national government levels, these pressures risk the quality of education and pupils’ experiences in the years ahead.”
The second blog in this two-part series further explores the challenges faced by schools as they return in September 2025 by investigating the levels of pupil and staff needs and support received.