NFER comment on updated DfE pupil projections

Comment

Friday 19 July 2024


Commenting on the latest DfE annual pupil projections, Michael Scott, NFER Senior Economist, said:

"In recent years, DfE’s annual pupil number projections have been forecasting a substantial decline in the number of state funded pupils by 2030. However, the latest pupil projections (published yesterday) suggest a much smaller decline in state funded pupil numbers than previously expected, increasing the 2028 projection by 260,000 pupils. The scale of the revision in the projections is unprecedented in recent years.

"Alongside this substantial revision, DfE has also shortened the previous time frame of the forecast from nine years ahead to just four, citing difficulty in predicting future birth-rates. This suggests there is even more uncertainty about future pupil numbers than usual.

 "Schools need to be adequately funded and these new projections suggest it is very unclear what is likely to happen to pupil numbers over the next five years. If the Government is assuming falling numbers will allow it to reduce overall budgets without reducing per-pupil funding, this could need revisiting."

Background

“NFER are publishing a blog series in the Autumn which will explore trends in pupil numbers and what less primary school pupils is likely to mean for the future of school capacity, school funding and the school workforce.”