Commenting on the latest DfE annual pupil projections, Michael Scott, NFER Senior Economist, said:
“This year DfE’s annual pupil number projections continue to forecast a substantial decline in the number of pupils in state funded schools, with pupil numbers expected to fall by almost 400,000 between 2025 and 2030.
“The latest projections suggest a larger decline in state-funded pupil numbers than expected last year, with 85,000 fewer pupils expected by 2028.
“Falling pupil numbers mean smaller classes, but also less income for schools. This presents a significant challenge to school leaders as many of their costs are fixed in the short-term, in turn exacerbating pressure on school budgets.
“Accommodating falling pupil numbers is likely to remain a key challenge for the school system over the next five years. It is crucial that adequate plans for managing changing pupil demographics are in place to ensure continuity and quality of provision for the young people in our schools.”
Background
Following our work in 2024, NFER will be publishing new insights into how schools are planning for declining pupil numbers in autumn 2025.