New data shows that recruitment into initial teacher training (ITT) increased significantly in 2025/26. Fewer teachers are also leaving the workforce each year.
Primary recruitment reached its target for the first time in four years last year and is set to again in 2026/27. While secondary recruitment was 11 per cent below target for 2025/26, this was the best it has been in four years. It is forecast to continue at a similar level (14 per cent below target) in 2026/27.
These are the latest findings from NFER’s School teacher labour market annual report, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, which has monitored the progress that the education system in England is making towards meeting the teacher supply challenge since 2019.
The overall picture for the teacher workforce is largely positive, with improved ITT figures likely boosted by weaker job prospects in the wider labour market, and this trend is likely to continue in 2026/27.
However, some secondary subjects are still struggling to meet recruitment targets such as business studies and drama. This includes subjects that may see an uplift in demand following the Government’s response to the National Curriculum Review, including modern foreign languages, music, drama, and design and technology.
Recruitment in secondary subjects that have historically suffered persistent challenges have improved, with several subjects forecast to meet or exceed their targets in 2026/27:
- Chemistry recruitment is forecast to hugely outperform its target
- Maths recruitment is forecast to be 22 per cent above target after meeting its target in 2025/26 for the first time in more than a decade.
- Physics recruitment is forecast to reach 93 per cent, having seen performance improve (albeit below its target) in 2025/26
- Science (biology, physics and chemistry combined) recruitment is forecast to exceed the combined target, as it did in 2025/26.
The report also shows teacher numbers have expanded in secondary and special schools, but primary teacher numbers are declining, driven by fewer pupils. Secondary pupil numbers are also set to fall, meaning the number of secondary teachers could start falling in the next few years.
In contrast, the number of pupils in state special schools and alternative provision (AP) is projected to rise by 8.2 per cent by 2027/28, creating extra demand for teachers — an equivalent rise would mean roughly 2,300 more in full-time equivalent terms. But the Department for Education (DfE) does not currently track teacher supply for these settings in the same way it does for primary and secondary schools, leaving a gap in understanding future staffing pressures.
NFER Education Workforce Lead, Jack Worth, said:
“Following more than a decade of persistent teacher recruitment and retention challenges, it is encouraging to see some signs of improvement.
“However, this is not a time for Government or the sector to rest on their laurels. Overall secondary recruitment remains below target. If the Government wants to achieve its 6,500 teacher recruitment pledge and maintain healthy supply into the future, it must continue to make the profession attractive. This includes increases to teachers’ pay that match or exceed wider earnings growth and further progress on reducing teacher workloads.”
Emily Tanner, Education Programme Head at the Nuffield Foundation, said:
“Findings from the NFER report highlight significant progress, which is good news for pupils who benefit from the stability and continuity that well-staffed schools can provide. Understanding the drivers of recruitment and retention is essential for addressing gaps and bolstering the workforce for the long-term.”
Further findings from the report show:
- Teacher pay has grown slightly faster than average earnings over the last three years, narrowing the gap — but salaries remain far less competitive than in 2010/11.
- The Government’s proposed 6.5 per cent pay increase over the next three years is unlikely to keep pace with wider earnings growth.
- Teacher vacancy rates fell slightly in 2024/25. They remain high by historic standards, but NFER expects them to improve given the trends in recruitment and retention.
- Teachers’ working hours and workload perceptions have improved modestly but remain less favourable than those of comparable workers. In the 2024/25 Working Lives of Teachers and Leaders survey, 26 per cent said their workload was acceptable — up from 17 per cent in 2021/22.
The report recommends:
- The School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB) and Government should aim to maintain the competitiveness of teachers’ pay by matching the growth in average earnings outside teaching, and funding schools to deliver it.
- Given the importance of special schools and AP for the 6,500-teacher target, DfE should conduct more deliberate workforce planning for these sectors, as it does for primary and secondary teachers.
- The Government should consider bursary increases for languages and arts subjects that are below their ITT targets, to support the implementation of the revised national curriculum and its changes to accountability measures.