Is the teacher supply challenge finally over?

Last week the Department for Education (DfE) published its estimates of how many postgraduate trainee teachers the system needs to recruit in 2026/27. The estimated targets were lower than many expected, with a 28 per cent reduction in the primary target and 21 per cent reduction in the secondary target.

What are the big drivers behind these changes? And what does it all mean for teacher supply and policy?

Why are the ITT targets so much lower this year?

The number of teacher trainees the system is estimated to need in each phase and subject is a complex calculation that accounts for many different factors that influence how many new teachers are likely to be needed. As a result, the drivers of the changes for each initial teacher training (ITT) target can be different for different phases and subjects.

This means that understanding why the targets have changed needs careful unpacking. Helpfully, DfE has published a considerable amount of accompanying information alongside the ITT targets on how they have been estimated and what different factors are driving the target changes. This is welcome transparency that should aid a greater understanding in the sector about how the targets are estimated.

A key driver is pupil numbers, as this has an important influence on how many teachers will be needed. The model does not necessarily assume that pupil-teacher ratios are maintained exactly over time and this reflects how changes in pupil numbers are managed by schools, with class sizes shrinking or growing to some extent with the overall number of pupils.

For primary, the DfE assumes that the 3.1 per cent fall in pupil numbers between now and 2027/28 will lead to a 2.5 per cent fall in the overall number of teachers needed. How schools will respond (or be able to respond, given their budgets) to pupil numbers falling is an open question, but with rapidly falling numbers it seems reasonable to think schools are more likely to make structural adjustments like consolidating classes, rather than seeing class sizes fall.

This change equates to 5,000 fewer teachers overall, meaning that fewer need to be trained now. Further, this year’s forecast of future primary pupil numbers was lower than previous estimates, leading to even fewer new teachers estimated to be needed. Indeed, as shown in the chart, pupil number changes are the biggest driver of the primary ITT target falling from 7,650 to 5,520.

There has also been an improvement in the number of teachers leaving primary teaching in the state sector, with the leaver rate falling from 9.8 per cent in 2023/24 to 9.4 per cent in 2024/25. This means fewer new primary teachers are needed as there are fewer attrition gaps to fill. The model assumes the rate will stay steady at 9.3 per cent for the next few years. Given the steady fall in the leaving rate over the last decade, this assumption seems reasonable.

A range of other factors are also used to estimate the ITT targets including: how many trainees complete training and end up in the state sector; how many full-time teachers have switched to part time (and vice versa); how many returners there will be, how many teachers Teach First will train, etc. All these other factors combined have made a minimal contribution to the change in this year’s primary ITT target, summing to a very modest increase in the estimated need for new teachers.

Another factor that the model accounts for is under-supply. It estimates how teacher supply is likely to evolve in the coming years, including accounting for how many of the people that we know have entered teacher training over the last two cycles are expected to enter teaching before 2027/28.

While it does mean that when recruitment to ITT for a subject is particularly low the target may get adjusted upwards to suggest more supply is needed, it is not as straightforward as simply adjusting the target upwards if the previous ITT target was missed.

The under-supply adjustment has been a major feature of secondary ITT targets since its introduction to the methodology in 2020. However, growth in the number of secondary trainees in the last couple of years from 12,600 in 2022/23 to 17,200 in 2025/26 means that the under-supply adjustment has been steadily falling for many subjects.

Low recruitment in the post-pandemic era led to ITT targets shooting up (e.g. from 20,900 in 2022/23 to 26,300), while recent higher recruitment due to the wider labour market slowdown has had the opposite effect.

As shown in the chart, this reduction in the under-supply adjustment is a major reason why secondary trainee need is estimated to be so much lower this year than last. Pupil numbers beginning to fall slowly and a modest improvement in retention rates have also made smaller contributions to this fall.

This year nine subjects that had an under-supply adjustment last year have no adjustment this year: maths, physics, computing, modern foreign languages, geography, art and design, design and technology, music, and religious education. The same under-supply adjustment effect cannot happen next year, as recruitment trends have led the adjustment to be switched off this year. This means a similar-sized fall in targets next year is very unlikely.

Meanwhile only four subject areas still have an under-supply adjustment in the latest calculations: classics, business studies, drama and others (which includes psychology, media studies, etc). As these subjects represent a small proportion of the trainee target, any fall in the under-supply adjustment next year would have a much more modest effect overall.

Where does this leave teacher supply?

In March we published our 2026 report on the school teacher labour market. In it we presented an interim forecast of ITT recruitment in 2026/27, based on applications received up to February and reporting against last year’s targets as no targets had been published. Below we present an important update to that forecast, using the newly published targets and also fresh data on applications up to April.

The picture in March was of a largely promising scene, with primary, English, maths and science recruiting around or above the target, but with some areas of remaining concern including secondary recruitment overall being below target (86 per cent) and eight subjects forecast to be below target.

However, the latest target data radically changes that picture. As shown below, secondary recruitment is forecast to be around its target, with only five or six subjects now likely to be below target. Maths, computing, chemistry and physics – often noted as key shortage subjects – are all expected to recruit well above their respective targets. Primary is likely to exceed its target by around three quarters.

The updated data therefore suggests the overall picture is even more positive than previously thought.

Where does this take teacher supply policy?

This data signals a massive shift from a world in which teacher recruitment was a hugely pressing concern across most phases and subjects to a world in which teacher supply concerns have eased and targets are likely to remain lower than in recent years. It is likely to have influenced the Government’s decision to reduce bursaries in some subjects in October last year.

Indeed, it may even begin to prompt policymaker concern about over-supply of teachers and the dangers of spending scarce public resources on training teachers for whom there are not enough jobs. After all, the original purpose of the Teacher Supply Model (now the Teacher Workforce Model) was to determine training place allocations and caps for ITT providers.

Such over-supply concern may initially be concentrated on primary, where the case for reintroducing place planning seems strongest. Primary pupil numbers are expected to continue falling, keeping targets low, against a backdrop of historically healthy teacher supply. Primary teacher training has no bursary, so there are few targeted financial policy levers to pull to manage supply.

However, for most secondary subjects, such talk of place planning would be premature for now. The main reason is that the model used to estimate need makes simplifying assumptions that do not take account of the full teacher supply context.

For example, the model assumes that schools currently have all the teachers they need and that trainees maintain the status quo. This may be close to true for PE, for example, where 95 per cent of teaching is by subject specialists (i.e. those with a relevant degree in their subject, including PGCEs).

Backfilling for a lack of available specialist teachers in subjects that have historically under-recruited remains an important priority for improving the education quality experienced by pupils, which could be achieved through recruitment above the target. For example, around one in eight (13 per cent) maths lessons is taught by a non-specialist, rising to one in six (17 per cent) in key stage 3 and even higher in schools serving the most disadvantaged communities.

This should begin to ease with recruitment of 138 per cent of target but would do so only slowly, needing multiple years of healthy recruitment to change substantially.

The model also takes no account of future teacher need that is beyond maintaining current provision. For example, as we explained in our recent report, the upcoming curriculum and accountability changes may prompt schools to want to employ more teachers in creative subjects. However, the model doesn’t account for higher demand due to curriculum change and recruiting at or beyond the target in these subjects may enable more teachers to be available to help manage these changes.

Overall, despite the much more positive picture this new data paints, this is not a time for policymaker complacency about the state of teacher supply. Sustained progress will be essential to reverse the damage that previous under-supply has caused to the extent of specialist teaching in shortage secondary subjects and particularly in schools serving the most disadvantaged communities.

If there was an improvement in graduate prospects in the wider labour market, then it could also make teacher recruitment more challenging again.

Nevertheless, with primary pupil numbers expected to continue falling and secondary pupil numbers set to fall precipitously in the next decade, the ITT sector needs to begin preparing for a world in which targets are lower than they have been, with discussions about how best to manage workforce planning perhaps becoming more prominent.