The career ladder is missing its first rung

This blog was first published in FE Week on 16 July 2026.

This is not simply about whether young people have the right qualifications, or access to careers advice and employment support. It is about whether the labour market still provides enough opportunities for young people to get started, gain experience and build careers.

The deterioration of established pathways from education into entry-level roles and stable career-track employment may be one of the most important structural drivers of declining social mobility and young people’s growing disillusionment with the economic and political system.

While many young people are affected by these changes, those from disadvantaged backgrounds are likely to face the greatest challenges because they are often most reliant on accessible entry-level opportunities to gain a foothold in the labour market. As these opportunities decline, it may become harder for them to transition into independent adulthood.

Before the mid-noughties, we became used to the labour market offering large numbers of jobs that acted as stepping stones into sustainable careers for young people. These roles did not always pay well, but they provided accessible entry points for young people to gain experience, develop workplace skills and build a platform from which to progress. 

However, opportunities to access low-skilled, accessible jobs have long been waning and recent labour market changes suggest this trend has accelerated. NFER research, The Skills Imperative 2035, showed that AI, automation, and wider demographic, environmental and economic changes are reshaping the labour market, with employment growth concentrated in higher-skilled, higher-paid occupations, while most lower- and middle-skilled occupations decline.

Actual employment changes in recent years suggest the pace of change has been faster than previously projected, by as much as three times for some groups.

Many of the jobs that historically provided young people with a foothold in the labour market – such as administrative and routine customer service roles – are shrinking.

These roles were important not necessarily as destinations, but as first steps; jobs where young people built skills and experience, helping them later progress into more stable career-track jobs. 

At the same time, the requirements of the remaining entry-level jobs are rising. Employers increasingly seek experience and a combination of technical and transferable skills, creating a challenge for young people who need employment in order to gain the very experience employers are asking for.

This risks creating a cycle where young people face higher barriers to accessing opportunities that were previously more accessible.

Consequently, young workers now start further down the career ladder than they used to and progress more slowly after that point . Even graduates are experiencing a ‘triple whammy’ of challenges due to a general labour market slowdown, a sharper decline in graduate-level job openings, and reduced demand for lower-skilled ‘stepping stones’ roles.

NFER research shows that the sharp slowdown in hiring in the tech sector, for example, has hit entry level roles disproportionately.

The result is that the labour market is shifting from one that facilitates efficient education-to-employment transitions to one with fewer entry points into occupations offering good career and salary progression, especially outside London; rising experience requirements for roles that historically provided that experience; and a growing risk of becoming trapped in forms of underemployment.

As is often the case when opportunity structures weaken, disadvantaged young people are likely to bear the brunt particularly those with fewer qualifications and family connections or financial support that can help others navigate a more competitive labour market. 

Milburn’s interim report rightly acknowledges occupational changes in the structure of the labour market and the erosion of early career entry points. But these changes should be treated as more than just background context.

They are central to understanding why so many young people are struggling to establish themselves in the labour market. Policy focus is on improving the education, welfare, health, and careers systems around young people, without adequately acknowledging that the structure of opportunity has changed and is likely to change further still.

This risks helping young people compete for existing opportunities, rather than addressing the shrinking structure of opportunities themselves.

The erosion of entry-level opportunities is not just a temporary disruption but the consequence of deeper structural changes that are reshaping the demand for labour. Milburn’s final report needs to start from this premise.

Young people don’t just need help to climb the rungs of the career ladder; we also need to rebuild the ladder itself.