Commenting in response to today’s publication of the Department for Education’s new Schools, Pupils and their characteristics data, Jenna Julius, Research Director at NFER, said on changes in pupil disadvantage:
“As of January 2026, over 2.21 million pupils were eligible for free school meals, equivalent to 26.5 per cent of all pupils. This is an increase of 43,000 pupils since January 2025, when 2.17 million (25.7 per cent) pupils were eligible for free school meals and continues the increasing trend that began in 2018/19.
“However, this trend appears to be largely driven by transitional arrangements introduced in 2018 to smooth out the introduction of Universal Credit. These arrangements have meant that since 2018 any pupil who becomes eligible for FSM has retained that eligibility until they finish their schooling.
“To understand how the number of disadvantaged pupils would be evolving in the absence of the transitional arrangements, we can consider how the number of reception pupils eligible for FSM has changed as these pupils are unaffected by the transitional arrangements.
“Focusing on the reception cohort only, we observe that the percentage of children known to be eligible for FSM fell slightly, from 17.5 per cent in January 2025 to 16.8 per cent in January 2026. This continues a trend since January 2023 and suggests underlying levels of pupil disadvantage have not increased over this period.
“As of September 2026, Universal Credit transitional arrangements will end for all pupils, and a new expanded free school meal status will be introduced covering pupils who are not eligible for free school meals under the current criteria, but who are in households receiving Universal Credit. These pupils will receive free school meals but will not be eligible for pupil premium.
“It is crucial that schools begin preparations for the changes to the free school meal eligibility process now to ensure all eligible pupils are ready to receive free school meals from the start of the autumn term.
“The removal of transitional arrangements will also have wider implications for school funding and the measurement of the disadvantaged attainment gap.”
Commenting in response to today’s publication of the Department for Education’s new School Workforce Census Data, Jack Worth, Education Workforce Lead at NFER, said:
“The Department for Education has made further progress towards achieving its target of recruiting 6,500 teachers, supported by improving retention rates and more people entering teacher training in recent years. Vacancy rates are also improving compared to their peak in 2023/24, in line with the trends outlined in NFER’s teacher labour market report published in March.
“However, sustained progress will be essential to reverse the damage that previous under-supply has caused to the extent of specialist teaching in shortage secondary subjects and particularly in schools serving the most disadvantaged communities. One in six maths lessons in years 7-9 are still taught by non-specialist teachers.
“This is not a time for policymaker complacency on teacher supply. Ensuring teaching is sufficiently financially attractive and prioritising teacher workload reduction would help protect the fragile progress achieved so far.”
