A healthy labour market?

This blog post was first published in Teach Primary magazine on Thursday 14 May 2026.

Primary school teachers play a vital role in giving every child a high-quality education and enabling them to meet their potential. This is why it is so important that primary schools can recruit and retain fantastic staff to teach their pupils. But many schools still find it difficult to recruit. At NFER, we publish an annual report looking at the trends in the labour market for teachers. In 2026, the overall picture is improving. However, important challenges remain and more are emerging. 

Falling numbers

The number of primary school teachers (in state schools) started to decline in 2021/22 and there has been a decline in each year since then. This trend is linked to a fall in the number of primary pupils. All else being equal, fewer pupils mean the school system needs fewer teachers. Forecasts suggest the fall in the number of pupils in primary schools is likely to accelerate over the coming years. Nationally, there will be a drop of around five per cent in the number of pupils between 2023/24 and 2027/28. This will continue to reduce demand for primary school teachers. Some areas will see smaller falls while others will see larger. Managing falling budgets will be a key challenge for many schools over the next few years.

Hitting recruitment targets

Despite falling numbers, the system still needs to recruit more primary school teachers each year. This is because teachers will leave the system and need to be replaced.

The Department for Education’s (DfE’s) main measure of teacher recruitment compares the number of postgraduate trainees in initial teacher training (ITT) to a target that the Department calculates based on expected system need. For the 2025/26 training year, there were around 9,800 primary teaching trainees, significantly more than the target of 7,650. As such, the target was exceeded by nearly 30 per cent. This should mean there is a good pool of candidates for vacancies in most areas, although there may be pockets of the country that struggle to attract high-quality candidates.

Looking ahead, emerging data from applications so far this year suggests primary recruitment will probably be above target again for the 2026/27 training year. Young graduates may be more attracted to teaching because alternative options in the wider labour market are being squeezed. We saw a similar effect during the pandemic.

Fewer exits

There is another reason that recent ITT recruitment looks good. Fewer primary school teachers are leaving the system each year, which means fewer need to be recruited. 

The improvement in teacher retention is likely due to a range of factors. Teachers’ pay has, on average, increased by more than inflation over the last few years. Whilst growth in teachers’ salaries has lagged behind wider earnings over the long-term, it has made up a little bit of ground in the last few years. This will have improved the competitiveness of teacher pay relative to other jobs and encouraged more teachers to stay. 

But pay is not the only factor. NFER’s analysis of data from various surveys suggest that workload pressures (across the state sector) continued to ease slightly in 2024/25. This is important because excessive workload has also been shown to drive teachers to leave. However, recent improvements in teachers’ workload should not be overstated. Many teachers still report having an excessive workload and they work longer weeks than similar workers during term-time.

Challenges, old and new

While overall recruitment and retention data in the primary sector looks healthy, not all schools and teachers will recognise their experience in the national averages. For example, we know that primary school vacancy and turnover rates are higher in schools with more disadvantaged pupils, increasing their reliance on supply staff. There will be geographic areas where recruiting staff is more challenging too. Indeed, many primary schools still find it difficult to recruit teachers. In a recent survey, half of senior leaders said it was difficult to do so. This proportion has come down since a similar survey in 2023, but it is still high.

Looking forward, our report identified policy developments that could risk significantly increasing primary teacher workloads, which could increase teacher exits.

Firstly, teachers will need to update schools’ teaching approaches and schemes of work when changes to the National Curriculum are published in September 2027. 

Secondly, the Government’s reforms to the system for children with SEND may increase the workload burden many teachers face. Schools will be expected to create Individual Support Plans (ISPs) for pupils with SEND, in partnership with parents, and review them regularly. The Government has said it will put support for teachers in place, but it remains to be seen what the net effect on workloads will be.

Both these changes will need to be carefully implemented – by Government and by school leaders - to ensure they are not making teachers’ jobs unmanageable and leading to a rush for the door.

Conclusions

Our research suggests the labour market for primary school teachers is in a relatively good place in 2026. Nationally, recruitment is above target and exit rates are falling. On the other hand, many schools say they are still finding it difficult to recruit teachers. This suggests they are not recognising the national picture in their own experiences. 

Teachers’ workloads, while improving slightly, remain high. We must keep improving workloads in the face of existing and emerging pressures, while keeping teachers’ pay competitive, to ensure the progress made in recent years is not lost.