Commenting on the National Pupil Projections published Thursday 16 July 2026, Michael Scott, NFER Senior Economist, said:
“New pupil projections forecast that pupil numbers in England are set to fall further and faster than previously thought. Primary schools continue to be the most affected, with pupil numbers forecast to fall from 4.4 million today to 3.9 million by 2031. That would represent a 15 per cent fall since their peak in 2019 (4.6 million).
“As funding is closely linked to pupil numbers, our research has highlighted that many primary schools are already having to cut classes and staff as a result of falling roles.
“One of the most concerning things is that schools with more disadvantaged pupils appear to be bearing the brunt of falling pupil numbers. The Government should urgently assess what impact falling rolls are likely to have on disadvantaged pupils and what can be done to help schools respond.
“The new data also confirms that secondary pupil numbers have peaked at 3.2 million and are forecast to fall by eight per cent by 2031 (to a little under three million). Schools in areas such as London are likely to be hit sooner. Secondary school leaders should be keeping a close eye on how numbers are changing in their local area and plan accordingly, if they are not doing so already."